CryptoQuant contributor analyst argues that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently a stupid investment for willing buyers. Additionally, research argues that Bitcoin is facing a ‘loop bottom’ this year, where it could drop more than 50% from current levels.
2022 is Bitcoin (BTC) the year of ‘surrender’?
In a Twitter thread on June 1, analyst alias Venturefounder, contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, predicts 2022 as Bitcoin’s ‘surrender’ year. Based on historical patterns involving Bitcoin’s halvings, the analyst says this year should be the bear market black sheep of the current four-year cycle, making the following assessment:
Just like 2018 and the bear market As such, BTC should find a macro base for itself at some point in 2022, and if we calculate the prior declines from all-time highs, it could be anywhere between $14,000 and $21,000.
Bitcoin’s route according to Venturefounder
In a tweet, “670 days left until the next Bitcoin halving, Venturefounder makes the following assumptions:
In the next 670 days, BTC will capitulate in the next 6 months and hit the bottom of the cycle ($14-21,000), then in many of 2023. It will fluctuate around $40,000 and will be around $40,000 again until the next halving.
This kind of prognosis (guessing the outcome of the question) is not without precedent, if not music to the bulls’ ears. Kriptokoin.com , after reaching $3,100 in December 2018, Bitcoin managed to recover to $13,800 seven months later and went back downhill to $3,600, the lowest level of March 2020. Even the 2019 local hill wasn’t enough to break the time record ($20,000) set in December 2017.
Bitcoin currently has the “smoothest 3-year ROI ever”
Venturefounder says that for Bitcoin this level (40k) dollar) may again become a feature of the spot price chart. According to the analyst, those who want to ride the wave and invest (even now) will be on the wrong side of history. He explains it in the following form:
In other words, it is as convenient as possible to buy Bitcoin for 6-12 months from this point forward. Probably the most adequate 3 year ROI % ever. We may not be at the bottom of the cycle, but we are in the bottom range of the BTC cycle. This is the most convenient thing you can do when timing market cycles.
Base estimates for BTC keep coming
In this midst, other analysts put the lowest possible range for BTC at $14,000 or close. they are guessing. This assumed price would represent an approximate 80% drop from the current all-time high of $69,000, which corresponds to the percent low of the previous cycle.
Current levels around $31,000 look relatively modest as a drop, according to information from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
BTC drops from all-time highs / Source: Glassnode Last month, fellow analyst Rekt Capital calculated a potential target of $15,500 when BTC fell below its 200-week moving average.
Sellers may face difficulties driving the market this far. MicroStrategy, the owner of the largest BTC institutional treasury, made a mistakenly random purchase to the $20,000 mark. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of trading giant BitMEX, also confirmed that he will be interested in BTC at $20,000.